Rishi’s dream

Rishi has a beautiful dream

The Chancellor woke up one day, conscious of having had a wonderful dream. He remembered it well. The budget was balanced in 2022 and there was a predicted fiscal surplus in 2023 and 2024. External debt was only 32% of GDP and domestic sovereign debt was only 15% of GDP. Sovereign wealth fund was 12% of GDP with foreign exchange reserves of USD 624 billion and a trade surplus of USD 92 billion..

Could this be a dream come true? He reached for his phone. “Give me the head of stats!. Can these figures be right”

The dream turns to a nightmare

Some hours later his phone rang “ No boss, they are not right. We have researched which country’s figures they are, and they are not ours. They’re Russia’s.  We’ll send you the comparatives”

On his email, Rishi received the following.

Data	Ours	Russia’s
Fiscal surplus/deficit 2023	–10%	+2%
External debt as % of GDP	345%	32%
Sovereign debt as % of GDP	100%	12%
Trade surplus/deficit as % of GDP	–3.2	+2.5

“Russia’s!!! What shall I tell the PM who is going big on financial sanctions on Russia? They won’t  work, will they?”

“Well, boss. As my old headmaster at Eton used to say. This is going to hurt me more than it hurts you.  I am sure the PM will know what I mean”

So will financial sanctions work?

They’ve got the gas and they have an economy that could survive sanctions. And they have the armed forces on the border. What good is all the puffery about sanctions?